Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.362713 2.505822 2.661994 2.846893 3.062349 3.308851 3.617454
2025-08-03 2.218930 2.395274 2.595777 2.844958 3.153074 3.531877 4.051725
2025-08-10 2.080072 2.265995 2.482009 2.757688 3.110366 3.563303 4.223403
2025-08-17 2.000702 2.196074 2.427210 2.728986 3.126856 3.658828 4.481045
2025-08-24 1.939421 2.141469 2.383953 2.706427 3.142352 3.745761 4.729561
2025-08-31 1.891672 2.099174 2.351243 2.691820 3.162471 3.834805 4.988409
2025-09-07 1.864325 2.079458 2.344101 2.707690 3.222203 3.983396 5.370010
2025-09-14 1.792610 2.000984 2.257791 2.611502 3.113843 3.861073 5.235366
2025-09-21 1.765360 1.977095 2.240186 2.606574 3.135328 3.941334 5.490939
2025-09-28 1.721957 1.931062 2.191746 2.556419 3.086189 3.902072 5.501007
2025-10-05 1.724111 1.942609 2.218217 2.610040 3.193093 4.125961 6.095485
2025-10-12 1.736279 1.966851 2.261636 2.688695 3.342741 4.440191 7.003090
2025-10-19 1.716377 1.950045 2.251019 2.691675 3.377758 4.561921 7.512222
2025-10-26 1.697954 1.934286 2.240765 2.693870 3.410296 4.680790 8.062493
2025-11-02 1.653363 1.882892 2.180311 2.619512 3.312674 4.537891 7.772381
2025-11-09 1.629289 1.857994 2.155370 2.596696 3.298772 4.557497 8.002575
2025-11-16 1.608340 1.836649 2.134560 2.578950 3.291754 4.588938 8.281707
2025-11-23 1.590883 1.819457 2.118866 2.568007 3.295030 4.640450 8.650739
2025-11-30 1.583841 1.815792 2.121513 2.584313 3.344721 4.791924 9.472962
2025-12-07 1.542458 1.765521 2.058324 2.498903 3.215653 4.554488 8.652269
2025-12-14 1.530410 1.754340 2.049407 2.495889 3.228975 4.622336 9.111211
2025-12-21 1.504753 1.724524 2.013935 2.451470 3.168813 4.528464 8.872215
2025-12-28 1.511767 1.738565 2.039901 2.501509 3.275140 4.805081 10.403648